Budget 2026: Getting Calls Right

On Tuesday of this week, The Common Sense published an article titled What To Expect from the Budget Tomorrow. That was not a long-winded article of waffle, as so many outlook articles tend to be, but contained instead some hard calls on the numbers – and readers should judge the newspaper by the accuracy of those.

That article made the following predictions about what the minister would say (note this was the newspaper’s prediction of what the minister would announce, not necessarily what would play out in practice in the fullness of time):

“On growth, we expect the minister to announce numbers very near to a 1.2% GDP growth estimate for 2025, rising to 1.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.”

Yesterday, the minister announced figures of 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%.

“On the deficit, we expect the minister to announce a deficit of near -4.7% of GDP for 2025, -3.8% for 2026, and -3.3% for 2027.”

The minister went on to announce numbers of -4.5%, -4%, and -3.5%.

“On debt, we expect the minister to announce a debt-to-GDP figure of near 77.9% for 2025, 77.7% in 2026, and 77.4% in 2027.”

The minister announced numbers of 78.9%, 77.3%, and 77.0%.

Writers and analysts at The Common Sense aspire to high standards, and to getting calls right, so that readers may find real value in the information published to help them make decisions about the future of the world and South Africa. Readers would be wrong to demand anything less.